CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-09-22T22:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-22T22:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27076/-1
CME Note: Bright CME seen nearly due south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery; the CME is likely associated with an M1.9-class flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 13435 near center disk (N07W01) with an erupting magnetic loop, coronal spray, and series of brightenings from near the active region footpoints seen best in SDO 193 and 304. May partly be associated with a stray and faint erupting loop seen far off the southwest limb in SDO 171 near 2023-09-23T21:00Z but the timing of which the CME is first seen seems to be more likely in response to the center-disk eruptive signature. No clear arrival signature detected, although there is a relatively minor change in magnetic field on 2023-09-26T04:29Z and another one on 2023-09-26T10:58Z (but these signatures were determined inconclusive/minor).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-25T20:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: low2 (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a4b1
Ejecta settings d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrzqs
cormode: single


Based on analysis of the 2023-09-22T22:24Z CME traversing through the heliosphere faster due to the presence of the 2023-09-22T02:24Z and 07:36Z CMEs clearing the way.

See three-CME simulation of CMEs: 2023-09-22T02:24Z, 2023-09-22T07:36Z and 2023-09-22T22:24Z events: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/27082/1

Lead Time: 50.48 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2023-09-23T17:31Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy